For years, we have watched December weather forecasts with longing, hoping that the country might once again be blanketed in snow at Christmas. According to the latest long-term predictions, 2025 could finally break the more than two-decade trend: models now suggest a realistic chance of a true white Christmas.
Two decades without a real white Christmas in major cities
The statistics speak for themselves. According to Kiskegyed, the last snowy Christmas in Budapest was in 2002, in Debrecen in 2005, and in Szeged, Szombathely, and Pécs in 2007. The exception has been Hungary’s highest point: Kékestető enjoyed a snowy landscape on 24 December 2021.
This year, the first significant snowfall arrived at the end of November, giving several towns a distinctly wintry appearance. Meteorological models now suggest that a similar scene could return over the holiday period.
What do the latest forecasts show?
The beginning of December is expected to remain calm and relatively sunny. From mid-December, however, a marked drop in temperature and precipitation could affect the country, reports Pénzcentrum. The combination of cold air and moisture creates ideal conditions for snowfall.
Current models indicate that 24 December could see a significant amount of snow, potentially covering even lowland areas. This would be particularly unusual compared with the mild Christmases of recent years. Meteorologists also warn that the cold could persist into January, with severe frosts at night and daytime highs hovering around freezing.
A more substantial snowfall is expected only in the second half of January.
Where are the best chances for a white Christmas?
Mountainous regions—such as the Mátra, Bükk, and Kékestető areas—are once again in the strongest position.
The higher altitude and consistently low temperatures increase the likelihood of snow remaining on the ground. While lowland areas have a smaller chance, the latest data gives reason for cautious optimism.
In Budapest, statistics suggest the likelihood of a white Christmas is just 18–20%. However, this year’s forecasts offer a more favourable outlook.
What needs to happen for snow on Christmas Day?
Meteorologists say two conditions must occur together:
- the arrival of a cold front,
- and sufficient precipitation.
If either is missing, rain or sleet is more likely than snow. At present, both conditions could be met around Christmas.
Based on this, it appears that, for the first time in 20 years, there is a real chance that much of Hungary could enjoy a white Christmas. The mid-December cold front and expected precipitation could even bring a wintry landscape to lowland areas, making it worth keeping an eye on the constantly updated forecasts—there may finally be snow on Christmas Eve once again.
